Strategic Foresight Group
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About Strategic Foresight Group
Strategic Foresight Group undertakes forward-looking research in geopolitical, economic, technological and societal changes. Our research examines future trends and discontinuities in spaces where geopolitics intersects with business, economy, society, religion and technology. In addition to specific client-driven research projects, SFG also publishes reports. Its publications include Cost of Conflict in the Middle East, The Blue Peace: Rethinking Middle East Water, The Himalayan Challenge: Water Security in Emerging Asia, Global Security and Economy – Emerging Issues 2011-2020, An Inclusive World: Where West, Islam and the Rest Have a Stake, Managing Global Challenges, and reports on the future of the Middle East and South Asian countries.
SFG launches initiatives for dialogue and policy change to address specific challenges. The initiatives are backed by innovative research and engage senior level policy makers who are most relevant to bring about a change. These may include cabinet ministers, members of legislature, advisers to Heads of Government, leaders of multilateral organisations, and leaders of business groups. SFG also engages in direct consultation with Heads of Government.
SFG Focus Areas
SFG concentrates its focus on applying innovative foresight methods in four areas - Global Shifts, Resource Scenarios, Geopolitical Futures, and Peace and Conflict Analysis.
In January 2008, SFG brought out the ‘Global Security and Economy Report’ which identified the most important emerging issues across sectors and geographies that will have the maximum impact on the world between 2011 and 2020.
The five most significant issues identified included the Global Financial Crisis which became a reality later in the year, beginning October 2008. The other top issues mentioned are Rise of a Multi-Polar World replacing a period wherein USA was the sole superpower, Water Scarcity in Emerging Economies, Competitive Extremism and Prosperity of the Periphery.
SFG subsequently expanded its work on one of the key issues identified to examine the intersection between geopolitics and growing stress on the earth’s resources. SFG has launched initiatives to find sustainable and collaborative solutions to water security problems in the Middle East and the Himalayan River Basins.
In June 2010, SFG launched its report on the future of the Himalayan river basins at the Singapore International Water Week. The report examines changes in river flows from 2010 to 2030, and the implications for food security, health security, migration, political
stability, and cross-border conflict. It proposes new instruments of regional cooperation.
Some of the key conclusions of the report are highlighted below:
• In the next 20 years, the four countries in the Himalayan sub-region (India, Bangladesh, China and Nepal) will face the depletion of almost 275 billion cubic meters (BCM) of annual renewable water. For comparison, this is more than the total amount of water available in one of the countries – Nepal – at present.
• Both India and China will face a drop in the yield of wheat and rice anywhere between 30-50% by 2050. At the same time, demand for food grains will go up by at least 20%. As a net result, China and India alone will need to import more than 200-300 million tonnes of wheat and rice, driving up the international prices of these commodities in the world market. This will have adverse impact on the poor all over the world.
• Water scarcity and climate change-induced migration will exhibit a reverse pattern as compared to the conventional economic migration. For instance, people will be displaced from Nepal’s Terai region, China’s Northern provinces and river estuaries in the south-east, coastal districts of China and Bangladesh, Northern provinces of India which have hitherto been the destination for migrant population due to industrial growth. In China, the number of economic conflicts will increase as a result of all this activity. In the other three countries, social conflict may find ethnic, communal or religious expression.
• Relations between India and China may become strained due to competition over expanding influence in Nepal and especially, if China decides to build a dam or diversion project at the Great Bend over Yarlung Tsangpo. Relations between India and Bangladesh may become strained due to a decrease in flow of rivers from India to Bangladesh and increase in refugee flow from Bangladesh to India. Relations between India and Nepal may become strained due to plans of either party to build dams on their side of the border. Though the problems arising from water security are essentially internal, the solutions will need to be in the form of trans-boundary and sub-regional cooperation, especially if emerging Asia wants to convert adversity into an opportunity. Towards this end, the report proposes potential avenues for cooperation such as a Himalayan River Commission, increased data sharing and scientific exchange, amongst others.
SFG also creates tools to measure future progress in countries and regions. SFG has prepared country scenarios for India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Asia, Malaysia, Central Asia, European Security, West Asia, amongst others.
SFG has been at the forefront of revolutionary thinking to measure “progress”, by using consumption baskets to categorize the economy. In the case of India, it introduced the concept of the Business Class, Bike and Bullock Cart economy in order to understand how the Indian economy ticked. Some of the commodities that were looked at to delineate the Business Class economy were ownership of personal computers, cars, travel by air, both domestically as well as internationally (not necessarily by business class). Families belonging to the Bike economy owned colour televisions, had LPG gas connections and had homes with all basic amenities such as running water, sanitation and electricity. Families belonging to the Bullock Cart economy owned black and white televisions, radios and weather proof houses, but without the basic amenities.
When SFG first published its study Rethinking India’s Future: Prosperity of the Periphery in 2002, there were 20 million, 150 million and 840 million people in the Business, Bike and Bullock Cart economies respectively. This corresponded with 2 per cent, 15 per cent and 83 per cent of the population. In 2010, the population of India stands at 1150 million. There are 50 million, 300 million and 800 million people in the Business, Bike and Bullock cart economies, corresponding to 4 percent, 26 percent and 69 percent of the population. In 2025, the Indian population is estimated to be 1400 million people. It is forecasted that there will be 600 million in the Business and Bike class economies while the total number of people in the Bullock cart economy will be remain stagnant at 800 million people.
This study by SFG has been instrumental in re-evaluating how progress in India is measured. The report also throws up a dilemma. In 2002, there were 840 million people in the Bullock Card economy. This number remained almost static in 2007 and it is expected that 800 million people will still belong to this category in 2025. Thus, despite the economic growth, the absolute size of India’s Bullock Cart economy may constantly remain in the region of 800-850 million. To break this deadlock, transformation of 100 million people every six years is not enough. India needs to shift at least 200 million every six years from Bullock Cart to Bike Economy.
One of the other innovative tools developed by SFG is its Cost of Conflict Series for countries and regions involved in protracted conflicts. It is aimed at assessing past, present and future costs looking at a wide range of parameters. The first report in this series focussed on India and Pakistan. It was published in early 2004. The report has had a visible policy impact, following the media and public interest. Mr. Yashwant Sinha, India’s serving External Affairs Minister, lauded the report in a formal letter to SFG. Senior Pakistani diplomats and leaders have referred to it in their speeches. HM King Abdullah II of Jordan implicitly referred to this report in his closing address at the World Economic Forum summit on the Middle East in 2004, recommending a similar study on the Middle East.
In 2005, the Peace Secretariat in the Prime Minister’s office of Sri Lanka indicated interest in SFG conducting a similar exercise pertaining to the conflict in Sri Lanka. The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs supported the project, as Norway was the most significant interlocutor in the peace process in that country. This report, published in early 2006 was also widely debated in the Sri Lankan press, blogs and discussions. It has been actively disseminated by the civil society in Sri Lanka.
Strategic Foresight Group's (SFG) report on Cost of Conflict in the Middle East was published in 2009. It is the first time in the last 60 years that anyone has prepared detailed calculations of costs of various conflicts in the Middle East. The opportunity cost of conflict in the Middle East, over the last 20 years (1990-2010), was estimated to be twelve trillion dollars. The report used 97 different parameters to measure costs in financial, economic, social, political, military, environmental, diplomatic terms for the entire region. In addition, the study includes special focus chapters on costs incurred by Israel, Palestine and the international community. The report uses 1991 as a point of departure for its calculations and calculates most costs up to 2010 and develops scenarios for 2010-2025.
The report also identifies the benefits of peace. Importantly, the report emphasizes the benefits of Warm Peace as opposed to Cold Peace. Cold Peace may be defined as the absence of war or an uneasy truce. On the other hand Warm Peace advocates mutual trust and cooperation.
The Cost of Conflict in the Middle East has been cited as a breakthrough report and discussed by a Panel of Cabinet Ministers and senior diplomats at the United Nations Secretary General's Alliance of Civilizations, debated on the floor of the UK House of Commons and House of Lords, presented at the Aspen Institute and National Defence University in Washington DC, and mentioned in more than 300 newspapers, websites and blogs from 50-60 countries.
Progress Papers and Publications
1. Global Security and Economy – Emerging Issues Report
http://www.strategicforesight.com/Global%20Security_Economy%5B1%5D.pdf
2. The Himalayan Challenge: Water Security in Emerging Asia (Executive Summary)
http://www.strategicforesight.com/Himalayan%20Challenge%20ES.pdf
3. The Cost of Conflict in the Middle East (Key Excerpts) http://strategicforesight.com/Cost%20of%20Conflict%20-%206%20pager.pdf
4. The Blue Peace: Rethinking Middle East Water (Forthcoming)
5. The Cost of Conflict between India and Pakistan
http://strategicforesight.com/cost_conflict/index.htm
6. The Cost of Conflict in Sri Lanka
http://www.strategicforesight.com/ccinsrilanka/index.htm
7. An Inclusive World: In which the West, Islam and the Rest have a stake
http://strategicforesight.com/AnInclusiveWorld.pdf
8. The Final Settlement: Restructuring India Pakistan Relations
http://strategicforesight.com/finalsettlement/index.htm
9. Inclusive Semi-Permanent Conference for the Middle East
http://strategicforesight.com/Inclusive%20Semi-Permanent%20Conference%20for%20the%20Middle%20East.pdf
10. Brussels Consensus
http://strategicforesight.com/secondrt_brusselsconsensus.pdf
References
1. India cannot talk away Inflation – The Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703579804575441020169731944.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
2. Water Wars – The Times of India
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/sunday-toi/special-report/Water-wars-India-China-the-Great-Thirst/articleshow/6212014.cms
3. Catalyst for Peace or Reason for War? – Jordan Times
http://www.jordantimes.com/?news=24402
4. The Cost of Conflict in the Middle East – Yemen Times
http://www.yementimes.com/DefaultDET.aspx?i=1231&p=business&a=1
5. Recommended reading by the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations
http://www.unaoc.org/content/view/72/105/lang,english/
6. The Economic Times, 15 August 2007 on SFG’s Rethinking India’s Future
http://www1.economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-2282296,prtpage-1.cms
7. The Financial Express
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/indopak-conflict-positive-costs-zero-benefits/103689/
8. Gulf News
http://gulfnews.com/news/region/palestinian-territories/conflict-bleeds-middle-east-dry-1.51284
9. Smt Pratibha Devisingh Patil, President of India
http://presidentofindia.nic.in/sp260608.html
10. Depletion of Annual Renewable Water - Press Release by Ministry of Water Resources India, August 19, 2010
http://pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=65056
11. East Asian Unity – International Herald Tribune
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/23/opinion/23iht-edbowring.html
External Links
1. https://www.strategicforesight.com
