Global poverty reduction to 2015 and beyond: What has been the impact of the MDGs and what are the options for a post-2015 global framework?

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Global poverty reduction to 2015 and beyond: What has been the impact of the MDGs and what are the options for a post-2015 global framework?

Andy Sumner and Meera Tiwari explore the global poverty future beyond 2015.

Key findings of the research include:

• The impact of the MDGs at a country level is uneven at best.

• The MDGs may have had some distorting impacts, such as targeting the near poor (who are easier to help) rather than the most poor. • In many of the least developed countries and sub-Saharan Africa poverty reduction has been faster in the MDG period (whereas evidence of acceleration across all developing countries is less positive).

• The costs of adaptation to climate change will represent a huge challenge for any post-2015 framework.

• As will the addition of an extra 760 million people to the world’s population over the next ten years.

• The shifting global distribution of poverty – with three-quarters of the world’s poor now living in middle-income countries – a "new bottom billion" will also have an impact.

The authors conclude that a post-2015 framework would need to: • Pay greater attention to emerging issues such as climate change and demographic changes.

• Update thinking on indicators and institutions, giving greater weight to poor people’s own concerns.

• Have better Southern ownership which should lead to integration into national development strategies.

This could be achieved by:

• Setting up an independent global commission led by someone like Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

• Engaging in a truly global and participatory discussion through a series of roundtables, public events and research activities.


Impact of the Millenium Development Goals

Strenghths Weaknesses
* As a ‘rallying call’ for actors; as a common/shared understanding of

poverty reduction;

  • Targets and indicators to guide and

motivate policy decisions, and – in principle – accountability;

  • Pressure for more data on poverty||
* Defining human development outcomes rather than opportunities to achieve outcomes;
  • Limited unifying theory on the structural causes of poverty;
  • weak on social justice – equity, rights, vulnerability and

exclusion.

  • A (mis?) perception donor-led; and distorting impacts – transient vs. chronic poor.


Some issues will frame how the development agenda after 2015 will be approached. These include climate change and adaptation; demography and urbanization to name but a few very large issues. These will make the run up to 2015 different from that of the run up to 2000 The economic crisis has reshaped the world's geopolitics, different than the one of the 1990's when the current Millenium Development Goals were developped. Private sector flows, innovative taxes and climate financing are new topics that could make any post-2015 more comprehensive.

MDGs 1-7 and climate change relevant poverty impacts

Millennium Development Goals Climate change relevant poverty impacts
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and

hunger

Climate change is likely to impact on poor people’s livelihoods and food security by:
  • Reducing poor people’s livelihood assets
  • Altering path and rate of economic growth
  • Undermining food security
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
  • Destruction of schools/other assets by extreme events
  • Loss of livelihoods – reduced school attendance
  • Disaster-related migration of families
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and

empower women

* Reduced agricultural productivity/disasters can:
  • Burden women’s health; Limit women’s time to
  • participate in decision-making/income generation
  • activities; Reduce livelihood assets for women
Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Climate change-induced extreme weather events are

likely to result in higher prevalence of vector- and water-borne diseases, declining food security and decreased availability of potable water

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Climate change will directly impact on natural

resources, ecosystems and the earth’s natural cycles. This is predicted to reduce the quality and quantity of natural resources and ecosystems

Future frameworks

Sumner and Tiwari elaborated 3 frameworks of the development agenda. A "MDGs 2020/2025" sets a new deadline for the current goals and targets to be attained. The "MDG-Plus" takes the focus on 3-4 universal goals (child education, health and nutrition) and complete it with 3-4 new locally defined goals. The third option, "Millenium World/One World" builds on MDG 8 (Global partnership for development) to put the focus on resilience and climate change among other issues.

Header text MDGs 2020/2025 MDG-PLUS MILLENNIUM WORLD/ONE WORLD
Idea Same MDGs, possibly with a few changes to indicators and a newdeadline of 2020 or 2025 Incremental/expansion of MDG approach or ‘MDG plus’ to expand to local ownership with

nationally-set goals – which could be beyond a purely human development focus

A framework to address global issues notably climate change with global public goods and

goals for climate adaptation and finance and poverty/social insurance/security.

Indicators Existing MDGs with minimal - if any – changes or supplemented or

substituted with amended or new indicators

Small set of 3-4 ‘inner core’ universal goals from existing MDGs - child education, health and nutrition plus a small set of ‘outer-core’ 3-4 new and locally defined goals Some resonance with MDG8 indicators; indicators of resilience and vulnerability, global

public goods, climate adaptation, etc.

Institutions and Incentives Results based management. Existing donor and recipient government relationships? Post-bureaucratic approaches – i.e. choice architecture? New donor/recipient government and poor people relationship? Certain levels of deprivation trigger coordinated

International and/or national response (some parallels to Humanitarian approaches such as famine)? Global governance and relationships.

Comparison between the 3 options:

MDGs 2020/2025 MDG-PLUS MILLENNIUM WORLD/ONE WORLD
Better Southern ownership No Some Yes
Addresses difficult questions such as climate, etc. No No Yes
Probability of global agreement Easier Medium Hard
Strengths Keeps the current consensus and momentum, focuses on

rich countries honouring commitments and standing by their pledges; and may be easier to agree than other options. It means political and technical energy can be focused on implementation rather than discussions about a new framework

Fills gaps in the MDGs Forward looking; addresses wider and

intergenerational causes of poverty and vulnerability; incentivises behaviour change through mutual self-interest and solidarity

Weaknesses Misses the opportunity

to improve the targets and indicators to better capture the outcomes that matter most for poor people, and to develop a framework with stronger southern buy-in.

Complicates the

simplicity of the MDG framework. New targets may be hard to negotiate, especially if politically awkward, as there will be many concerns and criticisms. May still be regarded as donor-led and reductionist. Locally selected targets might hinder crossnational comparisons.

Harder to reach agreement?

See also

References

Sumner, Andy and Meera Tiwari.2010."Global poverty reduction to 2015 and beyond: What has been the impact of the MDGs and what are the options for a post-2015 global framework?" Institute of Development Studies (Paper 348).

External links

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